complexity rules

Harold Jarche

We live and work in a complex system. Simple, traditional linear models do not work in complex systems. Complexity is not complicated, nor linear — “In complex systems, the last thing that happened is almost never informative about what’s coming next.”

How Can Blockchain Become a Truly Transformative Technology?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

I first became interested in blockchain technologies when in 2016 the World Economic Forum (WEF) named The Blockchain in its annual list of Top Ten Emerging Technologies citing its potential to fundamentally change the way markets and governments work.

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AI Is Mostly About Business Value, Not Technology

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

For example, in a 2018 Harvard Business Review article he co-authored, Davenport advised companies to build their AI capabilities through the lens of business opportunities, rather than technology. Transformative technologies are prone to hype cycles , - remember the dot-com bubble.

learning with complexity

Harold Jarche

Two technologies — machine learning , and the internet — are changing our understanding of the world by showing that we really cannot understand large scale complexity. “We don’t use these technologies because they are huge, connected, and complex. Our success with these technologies?—?rather rather than the technologies themselves?—?is Sensemaking is becoming a critical skill in our complex world. Complexity

AI Technologies Are Fundamentally Changing How Work Gets Done

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

After decades of promise and hype, artificial intelligence is finally becoming one of the most important technologies of our era. AI technologies, like machine learning, are clearly having a major impact on the very nature of work.

Complex knowledge

Harold Jarche

Last week I spent several hours each day, for four consecutive days, trying to share complex knowledge. I was reminded once again of how much time it takes to share complex (implicit) knowledge. To really share complex knowledge takes a willingness to listen as well as the time and space to do so. complexity Learning Wirearchy I had my understanding of communities of practice, personal knowledge management, leadership, and innovation that I wanted to share.

Decision Making in Our Increasingly Complex Organizations

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Goldfarb explained that the best way to assess the impact of a new radical technology is to look at how the technology reduces the cost of a widely used function. As machine predictions become inexpensive and commonplace, the human judgement that leverages and complements prediction will become more valuable, especially given the increasing complexity of the decisions our institutions are called upon to make. “It’s

The Puzzling Economic Impact of Transformative Technologies

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

“General purpose technologies (GPTs) are engines for growth ,…” wrote Erik Brynjolfsson , Daniel Rock , and Chad Syverson in The Productivity J-Curve , a working paper recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). “These are the defining technologies of their times and can radically change the economic environment.

Educational Research in Learning Technology

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Kerr in this recent post , about how research in educational technology could be improved, but I have disagreements around the edges, enough that I think more discussion is warranted. Also, while Kerr is more focused on artificial intelligence in education (AIEd) research, I will address my remarks to learning technology more generally. Here are just a few: - access - it is demonstrably true that educational technology has increased access.

Complex Systems and the “Rashomon Effect”

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But part of my fascination with the subject is that I often ask myself similar questions when thinking about the equally mysterious world of highly complex emergent systems, that is, systems where the whole can at times be quite different from the sum of their parts. The reasons meteorologists give forecasts based on probabilities is because, given how complex weather systems are, they in fact don’t have access to all relevant information.

Technological Unemployment and the Future of Work

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Few topics are as important, - and as challenging to anticipate, - than the future of work given our justifiable fears of rising technological unemployment. One such discussion took place this past September at the The World Summit on Technological Unemployment in New York. I moderated a panel on Technology and the Future of Work, where MIT economist David Autor and NY Times reporter John Markoff talked about their most recent work.

Where is Technology Taking the Economy

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

I recently read Where is Technology Taking the Economy? , The first era, in the 1970s and 1980s, brought us Moore’s law and the dramatic advances in semiconductor technologies. And data can’t easily be owned either, it can be garnered from nonproprietary sources… if past technology revolutions are indicative, we will see entirely new industries spring up we hadn’t even thought of.”. But, as we well know, there are serious downsides to technology-based automation.

Gender Diversity, Empathy and Technology

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

What’s the value of gender diversity in technology-based disciplines? Is gender diversity an asset for technology-based companies? Are men inherently better than women at technology-based jobs? The human brain may well be one of the most complex structures in the universe. To help us address increasingly complex problems, the bulk of modern work , - in technology as well as most other fields, - is more and more team-based.

hold space for complex problems

Harold Jarche

Technology (think 5 billion people, digitized knowledge, ubiquitous cloud). But we need to first prepare people – individuals, families, communities – to be adaptable in dealing with technological and demographic changes, in a globalized, resource-challenged world. Every one of the major challenges facing us is complex. But our organizations are not designed for complexity. Our education institutions do not teach an understanding of complexity.

Robocalypse Now? Technology, Productivity and Employment

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

they asked in the paper’s abstract. “Canonical economic theory says no, but much recent economic theory says maybe - that is, rapid advances in machine capabilities may curtail aggregate labor demand as technology increasingly encroaches on human job tasks.”. But, “In the end, the fears of the Luddites that machinery would impoverish workers were not realized, and the main reason is well understood,” noted a 2015 article on the history of technological anxiety.

Complexity and Public Administration

Dave Snowden

Some 10 years ago now when I first became interested in how complexity science might be used in public administration there was a body of thinking but relatively few practical examples of applications. This has brought attention to approaches informed by complexity science for working with intractable problems as well as a way to square the circle of making localization workable and relevant. So what is applying complexity thinking to public policy really all about?

immunize for complexity

Harold Jarche

It comes from the 1990’s but is still in use to describe the complex and chaotic world of business, politics, and technology. Complexity. Velocity and agility can be improved at the organizational level with frameworks, such as Niels Pflaeging’s Organize for Complexity approach. ComplexityHave you heard the term VUCA ? Volatility. Uncertainty. Ambiguity. Peter Hinnsen, in The Network Always Wins , describes the antidote to VUCA as VACINE. Velocity.

simple structures for complex problems

Harold Jarche

What is the optimal digital transformation technology for a networked organization? It is a suite of capabilities that foster an organizational culture that is constantly learning in order to understand and engage the complex environment in which it lives. Like the Internet, that enabled a digital transformation of society and business, these technologies must be based on a simple structure. The human brain is the best interface for complexity.

technology, economics, and behaviour

Harold Jarche

Technologies are teachers of habit.” Complexity needs time and concentration and we have no staying power for it these days. Every fortnight I curate some of the observations and insights that were shared on social media. I call these Friday’s Finds. “We are creatures of habit. ” — @amicusadastra. States fail when they cannot distinguish fools from serious men.” — Antisthenes via @sentantiq. “I believe it was Arthur C.

The Complex Nature of Cloud-based Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

I find it helpful to look at cloud along two key dimensions: as a technology to improve IT productivity, and as a platform for enabling business innovation. A 2012 survey of business and technology executives found that two thirds of respondents viewed cloud as a leading priority for their IT organizations, while one third said that it was a company-wide business priority. By now, most will agree that cloud computing is a major transformational force in the world of IT.

Big Data, Complex Systems and Quantum Mechanics

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In thinking about this question over the last few years, I started to notice that a number of subtle, non-intuitive concepts that I learned many years ago as a physics student seem to apply to the world of big data and information-based predictions in highly complex systems. So is the world of highly complex systems , especially those systems whose components and interrelationships are themselves quite complex, as is the case with systems biology and evolution. .

The Top Ten Emerging Technologies of 2016

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

For the past several years, the World Economic Forum (WEF) has published an annual list of the Top Ten Emerging Technologies that would likely have the greatest impact on the world in the years to come. The list is compiled by the WEF Meta-Council on Emerging Technologies , a panel of global experts led by Dr. Bernard Meyerson , - IBM Fellow and Chief Innovation Officer. The technologies on the list are not new.

Managing in Complexity

Harold Jarche

As our markets and technologies get more complex, we need new models to get work done. However, complex systems are not fully knowable, though they can be partially understood through interaction with them. If companies want to remain competitive in the global market, they need to focus on complex and creative work. Much of complex work is in exception-handling and when exceptions are the rule, rigid rules must become the exception. complexity Wirearchy Work

Scale and Complex Systemic Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Large enterprises are typically thought of as hidebound defenders of the status quo, dominating by market power and brute force rather than technological and innovative prowess.Yet reality is far more complicated than this simple small versus big distinction. It favors large companies because of their ability to address complex systemic problems, manage the large-scale ecosystems that solving such problems requires, and bring their solutions to market all round the world.

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Navigating Complexity

Dave Snowden

For those interested I did a Podcast a week or so ago for the Yi-Tan Technology Community. The subject was Navigating Complexity , its a title I've used before and its much better than managing complexity or heaven help be reducing complexity both of which have been suggested and rejected in the past. How do chaos, complexity and systems theories differ, overlap and interact? Best wishes for 2011.

Managing Complex, Disruptive Innovations - Some Lessons Learned

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

One of the major challenges in managing disruptive innovations is that even if you are sure that change is inevitable and you must therefore embrace the new ideas and technologies, you really don’t know what lies ahead. Since one of the reasons for embracing a disruptive technology might be to help expand your markets, it ’ s quite possible that you will also be reaching out to different kinds of customers through different kinds of sales and support channels. .

Absorbing complexity with PKM

Harold Jarche

Anne Marie McEwan explains its effects, in Why Your Network is Your Life Support System : The concept implies that organisations that fail to distribute responsibility for absorbing complexity will eventually cease to be viable – they will not be resilient against shocks coming at them from their external environment. We both use social technologies to reach out into the complexity and try to make sense of it. With complex problems there is not often a simple correct answer.

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Technology and the Future of Media

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Most everyone will agree that advances in information and communication technologies (ICT) are radically transforming the business landscape. Internet users already spend 20–30% of their time online, mainly engaging with media content… Globalization, deregulation, technological innovation and the convergence of previously separate industries such as media, entertainment, information, and consumer electronics, have created a somewhat turbulent media landscape.”.

No cookie cutters for complexity

Harold Jarche

technology ? Five years later, Dave Snowden makes a similar observation, sparked by a KPMG marketing brochure on “cutting through complexity” Dave concludes: If a consultancy firm really wants to help their clients they they should support them in living with complexity, riding its potential, avoiding reductionist approaches, engaging customer and staff in a sensing network. Complex problems require require different thinking. complexity

Payment Technologies: Past, Present and Future

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

I was reminded of this dictum when recently attending a very interesting workshop, Payment Technologies: Past Present and Future. The workshop was sponsored by UC Irvine’s Institute for Money, Technology and Financial Inclusion (IMTFI). IMTFI was established in 2008 “to support research on money and technology among the world's poorest people. Complex Systems Digital Money and Payments Economic Issues Innovation Political Issues Society and Culture Technology and Strategy

It's All About the Business Model, - Not the Technology

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

New technology alone, - no matter how transformative, - is not enough to propel a business into the future. The business model wrapped around the technology is the key to its success or failure. It includes people, technology, facilities, equipment, information, channels, brand, and partnerships and alliances. The power of this deceptively simple framework lies in the complex interdependencies of its parts. Technology-enabled business models.

The Top Ten Emerging Technologies of 2017

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Earlier this year, Scientific American , in collaboration with the World Economic Forum , published a special report on The Top Ten Emerging Technologies of 2017. These technologies, - selected by a global panel of experts , - “are expected to become increasingly commonplace in the next few years,” and are “attracting increased funding or showing other signs of being ready to move to the next level.”. The full report includes a one-page description of each of these technologies.

Design thinking & complexity pt 3

Dave Snowden

Brian Arthur makes the point in his book on evolution of technology, that modularity is necessary for exaptation to take place, The magneto not the radar creates the micro-wave oven. Only once a pattern emerges should you move it into a more formal process: the complex to complicated shift. In parallel ideas, technologies (in the case of health and well being, diets & therapies) are also captured.

The Dark Side of Technology

John Hagel

  Every talk or article coming out of Silicon Valley follows the prescribed template: start with a dazzling description of awesome new digital technologies and then proceed to explore all the wonderful benefits and opportunities that these technologies will bring to us.   I want to explore the dark side of these technologies.  I don’t mean to deny the incredible benefits that all these technologies are bringing us. 

“Complicated” vs. “Complex”

Martijn Linssen

The background: A gentleman who makes a living “reducing complexity” for IT systems keeps running into some of us on Twitter who study complexity. The ask: There is a group of complexity aficionados that criticize my use of the word “complexity.” ” In general, these are folks who are influenced by the Cynefin framework that considers complexity and complicated to be different attributes of a system. The Emergence of Complexity.

Build trust, embrace networks, manage complexity

Harold Jarche

We have known for quite a while that hierarchies are ineffective when things get complex. Most organizations still deal with complexity through reorganization. A connected enterprise starts by building a foundation of trust, embracing networks, and then managing complexity. Networks enable organizations to deal with complexity by empowering people to connect with whom they need to, without permission. Complexity. Complexity ConnectedEnterprise

A Growing Backlash Against the Relentless Advances in Technology?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Given the relentless impact of technology-based innovation on just about all aspects of society, I like reading the views of different people on the subject, especially those outside my own worlds of technology and business. At IBM’s Watson Research Center , where I spent the first 15 years of my career, I was mostly involved in technology transfer initiatives aimed at moving innovations from IBM’s research labs to its product divisions.

The Science of Complex Systems

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

When I look back over my long, relatively eclectic career, complex systems have been a common theme in all the activities I’ve been involved in. It started in the 1960s, when I was an undergraduate and graduate student at the University of Chicago majoring in physics, - the study of complex natural systems. The research for my thesis was focused on the highly complex world of atoms and molecules.

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Gender Diversity, Empathy and Technology

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

What’s the value of gender diversity in technology-based disciplines? Is gender diversity an asset for technology-based companies? Are men inherently better than women at technology-based jobs? The human brain may well be one of the most complex structures in the universe. To help us address increasingly complex problems, the bulk of modern work , - in technology as well as most other fields, - is more and more team-based.

Automation Technologies and the Future of Work

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Last year, McKinsey launched a multi-year study to explore the potential impact of automation technologies on jobs, organizations and the future of work. “Can we look forward to vast improvements in productivity, freedom from boring work, and improved quality of life?,” It found that 45% of work activities could be automated using existing, state-of-the-art technologies. According to McKinsey, “fewer than 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology.

Complexity links

Harold Jarche

I use Delicious to keep track of web resources and recently passed on, via Twitter, my social bookmarks tagged with complexity. A short explanation of the Cynefin framework (and video by Shawn Callahan ), by Ton Zijlstra : Over the years I’ve seen the number of issues companies and professionals are dealing with shift more and more to the complex realm. Complexity is where predictability is absent, and only in hindsight cause and effect are clear.

Re-wiring for the Complex Workplace

Harold Jarche

Note: The following article appears in Inside Learning Technologies & Skills – May 2014. Complexity is the new normal. Inside Learning Technologies & Skills – May 2014. Today’s complicated organizations are now facing increasingly complex business environments that require agility in simultaneously learning and working. Re-wiring for complexity. Organizations need to understand complexity instead of adding more complication.

Can AI Help Translate Technological Advances into Strategic Advantage?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Go is a very complex game, for which there are more possible board positions than there are particles in the universe. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic,” is one of the most memorable quotes of science fiction writer Arthur C. But, as we better understand its promise and limitations, technology becomes just another tool we rely on in our work and daily life. Digital technologies are all around us.