Scaling in complex systems

Dave Snowden

Naturally I have done a lot more thinking since then but the fundamentals remain: you don’t scale a complex system by aggregation or imitation but be decomposition to an optimal level of granularity followed by recombination (possible exadaptive recombination).

Agency: privilege & complexity

Dave Snowden

The cartoon speaks for itself and has wider application than leadership, it can be used to look at the wider issue of change and the problems that have been created by the dominance of an engineering, cybernetics induced over the last few decades.

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Understanding complexity

Harold Jarche

Thinking of complex adaptive systems as merely complicated entities that can be regulated like machines can lead to disaster, as Niall Ferguson shows in his recent book. Human systems are complex. He also elaborates on 16 attributes of effective ways to address complex problems.

Fidelity in complex systems consultancy

Dave Snowden

It been a week since my tirade against the abrogation of leadership by falling back to the crutch of a mega-consultancy report. So its a hard problem, if not the Hard Problem , and it is especially so when you are working in a paradigm shifting area such as complexity theory.

The Internet of Things is Changing the World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

“How the world will change as computers spread into everyday objects,” is the title of the lead article in a comprehensive review of the Internet of Things (IoT) in a r ecent issue of The Economist.

Change 169

Coherence in complexity

Harold Jarche

Anecdote reports that John Kotter, leadership guru , is accepting that methods like his 8-step process for leading change may not be effective in the face of complexity. Complexity, driven by global networked communications, is the main factor.

The Complex Nature of Cloud-based Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In addition, cloud can help business users become more agile and keep up with the fast pace of technological and market changes. In 2009, the Royal Society , - the UK’s national academy of science, - released a report: Hidden Wealth: the contribution of science to service sector innovation.

Nothing Has Changed. Everything Has Changed.

Charles Jennings

If learning professionals and learning departments don’t adapt and change, Quinn argues, they will be revealed not simply as having no clothes, but as being so out of step that they will wither and die, or be removed from the value chain. So, what are these fundamental changes?

Change 238

Leadership in a Changing World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

What are the critical competencies needed to lead in our fast-changing business environment? Its findings were recently published in The CEO Report: Embracing the Paradoxes of Leadership and the Power of Doubt. But, w hile speed is the major dimension of change, it’s not the only one.

Change 203

Build trust, embrace networks, manage complexity

Harold Jarche

But hierarchies are rather useless to create, innovate, or change. We have known for quite a while that hierarchies are ineffective when things get complex. In matrix management people have more than one reporting line and often work across business units. Complexity.

Workshop report

Dave Snowden

I was also charged to give people some experience of complex facilitation techniques, so I explained what I was doing as I went along. Now the whole idea here is to prevent premature convergence by changing the membership of the groups and the tasks on a regular basis.

Report 130

The Complex Relationship Between Science and the Public

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But, despite broadly similar views about the place of science in the country, there were large differences between the general public and scientist across a number of important issues , including genetically modified foods, vaccine safety and climate change. Climate Change.

Automation and the Changing Demand for Workforce Skills

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In the intervening three years, the study has published a number of report on the subject. Based on an analysis of around 2,000 work activities across 800 different occupations, the report concluded that “fewer than 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology.

Skills 266

Changing the landscape of health

Dave Snowden

It is worth a quick refresh on two of the key principles of complexity (or rather cognitive complexity as we need to look at human complex systems in a very different way from those in termites nests). Diabetes Innovation Managing Complex Systems

Change 226

Scale and Complex Systemic Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Conventional wisdom these days says that small is better when it comes to innovation and putting new ideas into practice,” writes Mandel at the beginning of the report. But managing the kind of disruptive innovations that change the rules of the game requires a different management style based on identifying a brand new idea, moving quickly to establish an early market presence, and continuous market experimentation to refine the offerings and establish the company’s strategy.

System 167

How Can We Ensure that Our Complex AI Systems Do What We Want Them to Do?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Software-intensive systems are generally quite flexible, - able to evolve and adapt to changing product and market requirements. And, at the bleeding-edges of complexity are data-driven AI systems , which are generally based on statistical analysis and machine learning methods. .

System 241

On the Complex Evolution toward Mobile Digital Payments

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In addition, by reaching out to financial institutions, merchants, application developers and others, Apple is helping bring together the different players in the payments ecosystem, something that’s absolutely essential to succeed in such a complex undertaking.

7 principles of intervention in complex systems

Dave Snowden

Not to simply report what we had found, but to allow to explore the data and come up with a series of interventions that would hold out the possibility of achieving change, or through failure would allow learning to take place. I may buy this T-Shirt as its a great slogan.

Social Learning, Complexity and the Enterprise

Harold Jarche

Organizations, in order to function, need to encourage social exchanges and social learning due to faster rates of business and technological changes. The Internet has fundamentally changed how we communicate on a scale as large as the printing press or the advent of written language.

Game-Changing Basic Research: Benefits and Challenges

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Innovation Deficit , - a report on both the long term benefits of basic research and the impact on those benefits of declining federal investments. But, technology and market environments have drastically changed in the intervening years.

Human Capital and the Changing Nature of Work

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But on balance, such fears appear to be unfounded, noted the World Bank in a comprehensive recent report on The Changing Nature of Work. That’s a mistake, because neglecting investments in human capital can dramatically weaken a country’s competitiveness in a rapidly changing world, one in which economies need ever-increasing amounts of talent to sustain growth.” . How is the Nature of Work Changing? People have long feared that machines are coming for our jobs.

Change 173

Organizations and Complexity

Harold Jarche

Tweet I’ve discussed this table before, but I’d like to put it all the links together to highlight what we need to do with our organizations and structures to deal with complexity. Complexity. How we can support emergent practices in the increasingly complex enterprise: COMPLEXITY. Patti Anklam , in discussing value networks and complexity states: Understanding of complexity provides a practical guide to managing context.

Data Science and the Changing Nature of Research and Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The study examined the current state of US research and innovation; looked at the role of its key players: academia, industry, and government; and proposed a set of recommendations to better address the highly complex challenges we face in the 21st century information economy.

Data 261

Next Generation Evaluation: Embracing Complexity, Connectivity, and Change

Beth Kanter

Game-changing approaches: What are the most promising methods and examples of how social sector players are practicing evaluation in light of these new trends? Three game-changing approaches will be discussed in detail: Developmental Evaluation , Shared Measurement , and Big Data.

Bread, Freedom, Social Justice: A report from Egypt

David Weinberger

The cry of the masses reflected a street awareness of the complexity of development as human dignity and active citizenry — an enlightenment that the ruling elite lacked. Right after, SCAF dictatorially issued a constitutional declaration with 63 articles including the amendments with some editorial changes. Here is an email Nagla Rizk sent to the Berkman mailing list. I’m posting it with her permission.

Report 210

Climate Change, Waste & Festivals: a collective fight needing a common understanding

Dave Snowden

it also has the potential to mobilise momentum and drive change through the sharing of stories about what people are doing to make the world a better place. Building small, incremental change has always been the complexity mantra. When thinking about change and transformation, we were particularly interested in the idea of apathy, simplicity and the importance of time, e.g. are people thinking ahead or are there “more important things to do”?

Change 193

The Complex Relationship Between Science and the Public

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But, despite broadly similar views about the place of science in the country, there were large differences between the general public and scientist across a number of important issues , including genetically modified foods, vaccine safety and climate change. Two years ago, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences launched The Public Face of Science , an initiative whose objective is to better understand the complex relationship between scientists and the public in America.

Measuring the Forces of Long Term Change

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Intel co-founder Gordon Moore described what became known as Moore’s Law in a 1965 paper where he observed that the number of components in integrated circuits had doubled every year since their invention in 1958, and predicted that the trend would continue for at least ten years, a prediction he subsequently changed to a doubling every two years. The Foundation index has been growing at a ten percent CGR since 1993, and is the primary driver of all the other changes.

Change 203

Cloud Computing and the Changing Role of the CIO

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

I now want to turn my attention to cloud computing, and its impact as a key driver of the changing role of the CIO. It’s getting more complex because it’s proliferating. Last week I wrote about the 2013 MIT Sloan CIO Symposium which I recently attended.

Change 227

Growing Up in a Complex World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The primary challenge emerging out of the CEO conversations was complexity - the fact that CEOs now operate in a world that is substantially more volatile, uncertain and complex. They feel that incremental changes are no longer sufficient because the world is operating in fundamentally different ways. Owing perhaps to the challenges of today’s economic environment, students revealed distinctive viewpoints on the issues of complexity, information and decision-making.

The Complex Transition to the Age of the Cloud

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

a sea change - a deep and permanent shift in how computing power is generated and consumed. The IT function of 2015 will bear little resemblance to its current state,” concludes one such report. But, for the most part, today’s IT infrastructures are not up to the task without undergoing major change. Cloud computing is a highly complex initiative - at the technical, business and organizational levels. In June of 2008 I participated in a conference on cloud computing.

Cloud and “Game Changing” Business Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Earlier this year, IBM’s Institute for Business Value published a very good report - The Power of Cloud: Driving Business Model Innovation. According to the report “cloud empowers six potentially game changing business enablers”: . market adaptability - rapid prototyping and innovation to quickly respond to rapidly changing market conditions; . e-books is another widely used, game changing cloud application that is already transforming the book publishing industry.

Capacity, Change, and Performance

George Siemens

Capacity, Change, and Performance (.pdf pdf here ) is a lengthy report (166 pages) from 2008. The report is focused on development agencies, but many of the concepts tackled apply well to corporations and education. The report is worth more of an analysis/critique than I have time for now, but I’d to draw attention to the chart on page 19-20 (of the pdf) addressing major distinctions between planning in traditional systems versus planning in complex adaptive systems.

Change 130

The True Value of a Good Education: Adaptability to a Changing Environment

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In his 1945 seminal report, Science The Endless Frontier , presidential science advisor Vannevar Bush laid out the blueprint for R&D in post-war America: “New knowledge can be obtained only through basic scientific research” conducted in universities and research labs, which is then applied to develop new products by the private sector and new and improved weapons by the defense sector.

[shorenstein][liveblog] Phillip Martin on reporting poverty, and Boston’s racist image

David Weinberger

He is a Boston-based investigative reporter who (says Alex Jones) “tries to explain the city to itself.” It’s now considered to be one of the most dangerous in the area, which masks the complexity of the place. A labor reporter (Steve Orr [?]) He was reporting on the UAW and plants closing across Detroit. The coverage by this reporter did jibe with what Phillip saw happening and what his cousin Cyrus said about his experience working in an auto plant.

Report 131

The Leader's Guide to Radical Management: 84% vote for change in.

Steve Denning

84% vote for change I reported on Tuesday the shocking statistic that 84% of workers in the US plan to change jobs in 2011. It also shows the futility of changing jobs: when most of the jobs suck, changing jobs won't do anyone much good.

Change 184

Irving Wladawsky-Berger: Reflections on Complex Systems

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Irving Wladawsky-Berger A collection of observations, news and resources on the changing nature of innovation, technology, leadership, and other subjects. Architectures are needed to provide a common foundation for understanding, designing, analyzing and operating complex systems.

How complex is our work?

Harold Jarche

On my recent post, Emergent practices need practice , I looked at how complexity could not be easily addressed through traditional training methods: But many of the problems we face today are COMPLEX, and methods to solve simple and complicated problems will not work with complex ones.

Complex Development of Moral Sensitivity and Empathy - fMRI

Eide Neurolearning

From the Decety lab : "Moral reasoning involves a complex integration between affective and cognitive processes that gradually changes with age and can be viewed in dynamic transaction across the course of ontogenesis.

Cities reconfigured: How changing work, shopping, community, and transport will transform our collective lives

Ross Dawson

One of our companies, Future Exploration Network , recently created a detailed report for a client delving into the most important shifts shaping the next decade and beyond. In highly summarized form, some of the most important shifts reshaping cities are: Changing work.

Change 259

The Impact on Government of the Structural Changes in 21st Century Economies

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Most everyone agrees that economies and societies around the world are going through structural changes of a historical nature , driven by a number of powerful forces including digital technologies and globalization. Over the past two decades, companies, especially large, global companies, have been going through major transformations to help them adapt to these structural changes. Complex Systems Economic Issues Management and Leadership Political Issues Society and Culture

Change 157

The State of AI Adoption - High Performers Show the Way

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

A common theme throughout the report was that the same players who were leaders in the earlier waves of digitization and analytics were the early leaders in the AI wave. Overall, 63% report revenue increases in the business unit where the AI use case is deployed.

Oxytocin is a complex character

Mind Hacks

Contrary to the cliché, we reported on a study last year that found that the drug increased feelings of envy and gloating in a trading game. But things changed when she looked at them individually.