Social Physics - Reinventing Analytics to Better Predict Human Behaviors

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

T hey eventually discovered that all event-data representing human activity contain a special set of social activity patterns regardless of what the data is about. These patterns are common across all human activities and demographics, and can be used to detect emerging behavioral trends before they can be observed by any other technique. .

Design principles in DSS software

Dave Snowden

the next generation of Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning system for Singapore and as one of the main designers of 1.0 Now Jeff and I provide different perspectives on the whole issue of how you find patterns, my emphasis on human metadata compliments his ability to mash the numbers. It is a very different design philosophy and it also means a necessary emphasis on advocacy, and the need for research to persuade decision makeers to act on the basis of coherence rather than proof.

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Ethical Codes and Learning Analytics

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Abstract The growth and development of learning analytics has placed a range of new capacities into the hands of educational institutions. The ethics of learning analytics will therefore need to be developed on criteria specific to education. It may be argued that the relation between ethics and law is such that in a treatment of the ethics of learning analytics we ought also to be concerned with the law in relation to learning analytics.

Emergent & Semantic Learning

Clark Quinn

However, as you track outcomes, e.g. success on practice, and start looking at that by doing data analytics, you can start trolling for emergent patterns (again, made up). of the empirical rules, as well as potentially new patterns that we may be able to label semantically, and even perhaps some that would be new. Which helps explain the growing interest in analytics. design meta-learning strategy technology

Why Do We Need Data Science when We’ve Had Statistics for Centuries?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

One of the best papers on the subject is Data Science and Prediction by Vasant Dhar , - professor in NYU’s Stern School of Business and Director of NYU’s Center for Business Analytics , - which was published in the Communications of the ACM in December, 2013. Data analysis has been generally used as a way of explaining some phenomenon by extracting interesting patterns from individual data sets with with well-formulated queries.

A Framework for Building AI Capabilities

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In the 1960s and 1970s, IT brought automation to a number of discrete business processes, including transaction processing, financial planning, engineering design, inventory management, payroll and personnel records. Cognitive insight projects take AI to the next level, using machine learning and other advanced algorithms to detect patterns in vast volumes of data.

Data 159

The Top Ten Emerging Technologies of 2017

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Precision Farming Increases Crop Yields - “Combining sensors and imaging of every plant with real-time data analytics improves farm outputs and reduces waste”. Sustainable Design of Communities Dramatically Reduces Waste - “Moving beyond the green-home level, ambitious projects are attempting to join blocks of buildings into a single sustainable unit”. As new data is ingested, the system rewires itself based on whatever new patterns it now finds.

Researching open online courses

George Siemens

What are the habits and patterns of learner self-organization in open online courses? What principles or models of instructional design are most effective in developing MOOCs? Established researchers will likely already have some existing research techniques (such as social network analytics, discourse analytics, natural language processing, concept development, AI, and so on).

Course 164

Artificial Intelligence is Ready for Business; Are Businesses Ready for AI?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

A successful program requires firms to address many elements of a digital and analytics transformation: identify the business case, set up the right data ecosystem, build or buy appropriate AI tools, and adapt workflow processes, capabilities, and culture.”. A common theme throughout the report is that the same players who were leaders in the earlier waves of digitization and analytics are now leading in the AI wave. It can discern trends and patterns that can be acted on.”.

A Framework for Building AI Capabilities

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In the 1960s and 1970s, IT brought automation to a number of discrete business processes, including transaction processing, financial planning, engineering design, inventory management, payroll and personnel records. Cognitive insight projects take AI to the next level, using machine learning and other advanced algorithms to detect patterns in vast volumes of data.

Data 138

Can AI Help Translate Technological Advances into Strategic Advantage?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

A recent Harvard Business Review article, - Designing the Machines that Will Design Strategy , - takes these questions a few steps further. In their view business strategy consists of a series of highly interrelated conceptual and analytical operations, including problem definition, signal processing, pattern recognition, abstraction and conceptualization, analysis, and prediction. What technology, people, and design do I need to address these aims?

AI - the Creation of a Human-Centric Engineering Discipline

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Machine and deep learning are the latest examples of tools like the World Wide Web, search and analytics that are helping us cope with and take advantage of the huge amounts of information all around us. Practices, building blocks and tools have started to emerge, as have a number of sophisticated mathematical techniques such as those underlying deep learning. “What we’re missing is an engineering discipline with its principles of analysis and design…”, notes Jordan.

Reflections on Storytelling

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Recent advances in Internet and consumer technologies and new practices of networked consumption have changed the patterns of communication between brands and their publics,” writes USC professor Burghardt Tenderich in the introduction to Design Elements of Transmedia Branding. We are turning to both design and storytelling to help us address the increasingly complex world around us. Designers stand between revolutions and everyday life.

System 215

Data-Driven Decision Making: Promises and Limits

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

There are quite a number of interesting cases where people applied data analysis to uncover patterns that were useful in dealing with an unexpected new situation. The framework is designed to help leaders determine the overall context for making their strategic decisions, in particular whether it is ordered and complicated , or unordered and complex. The ordered world is the world of facts-based management; the unordered world represents pattern-based management.” .

Data 198

Shaping (As Opposed to Stumbling Into It!) – The Future of Online Learning and Training

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Jill Watson) – AU/Ryerson looking at engaging students using chatboths o Automated content generation – Washington Post uses AI to write 1000 articles this year o Quality assurance for OERs, analytics - Simuations for Learning o Flight training, engineering, geography, history o Banff Centre – “conversation between students and Abraham Lincoln” o Esp.

Strata Conference Wrap Up: Big Data, Big Opportunities

George Siemens

I’ve had a bit of trouble carving out time to write concluding thoughts about the event (time deficiency is mainly due to last minutes activities related to our Learning and Knowledge Analytics Conference ). It’s difficult to escape the growing attention being paid to data and analytics. In the business sector, the data/analytics combination falls under the marketable term of “business intelligence&#.

Data 156

The Top Ten Emerging Technologies of 2017

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Precision Farming Increases Crop Yields - “Combining sensors and imaging of every plant with real-time data analytics improves farm outputs and reduces waste”. Sustainable Design of Communities Dramatically Reduces Waste - “Moving beyond the green-home level, ambitious projects are attempting to join blocks of buildings into a single sustainable unit”. As new data is ingested, the system rewires itself based on whatever new patterns it now finds.

A Framework for Building AI Capabilities

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In the 1960s and 1970s, IT brought automation to a number of discrete business processes, including transaction processing, financial planning, engineering design, inventory management, payroll and personnel records. Cognitive insight projects take AI to the next level, using machine learning and other advanced algorithms to detect patterns in vast volumes of data.

Social Media Planning and Evaluation for NGOs | Full Circle Associates

Nancy White

This topic is designed to give you some tools and ideas for including social media appropriately in your overall organizational strategic plan and to measure its effectiveness. Track how many times a blog post has been viewed (using your blog software or a tool like Google Analytics ). On the other hand, if you believe in the emergence of new patterns, complexity and the need to adapt to circumstances, then you are likely to embrace social media for development.

practice, creativity, and insight

Harold Jarche

“The machine versus human debate has actually divided big data analytics experts into two camps. Every fortnight I curate some of the observations and insights that were shared on social media. I call these Friday’s Finds. Ray Bradbury : “I define science fiction as the art of the possible. Fantasy is the art of the impossible.” – via @DavidBrin. HughCards : “As the Internet makes everything cheaper, access to real networks (Harvard, Wall St.,

New Tools Beget Revolutions: Big Data and the 21st Century Information-based Society

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The] big data of this revolution is far more powerful than the analytics that were used in the past,” wrote Brynjolfsson and Andy McAfee in a recent Harvard Business Review article: Big Data: The Management Revolution. “We In 2012, he published a paper with his students, An Analytics Approach to Designing Clinical Trials for Cancer , which he dedicated to the memory of his father. . “We On May 22 I attended the 2013 MIT Sloan CIO Symposium.

Data 151

intangible value

Harold Jarche

Value network modeling and analytics reflect the true nature of collaboration with a systemic human-network approach to managing business operations. Intangible knowledge exchanges include strategic information, planning knowledge, process knowledge, technical know-how, collaborative design, policy development, etc., You can’t plan networks or force fit them into any pattern.

How to Help Students Succeed by Taking Ownership of Their Learning Online Through Personal Learning

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

So and I see something from Amanda saying I'm looking forward to seeing concrete examples of how to design for this yeah and that's what's coming. So designing learning is to a large degree about finding those concepts.

How To 216

Artificial Intelligence is Ready for Business; Are Businesses Ready for AI?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

A successful program requires firms to address many elements of a digital and analytics transformation: identify the business case, set up the right data ecosystem, build or buy appropriate AI tools, and adapt workflow processes, capabilities, and culture.”. A common theme throughout the report is that the same players who were leaders in the earlier waves of digitization and analytics are now leading in the AI wave. It can discern trends and patterns that can be acted on.”.

Determinism, Best Practice, and the ‘Training Solution’

Charles Jennings

If a chemical engineer is looking to design a new process or parameters for distillation in a chemical plant she may be able to identify the volumes and sequences that produce the highest amount of pure distillate. Cynefin is a sense-making model – where patterns emerge from the information and data – that explains how to respond to ordered and disordered systems.

The future of higher education and other imponderables

George Siemens

The patterns of change in higher education are surprisingly similar and global. Not all countries are adopting the aggressive UK model, but tuition patterns internationally (.pdf) The MOOCs that I’ve been involved with are designed to reflect the distributed, global, and networked structure of the web. The research topics are: social networks and media, data and analytics, and systemic change in higher education.

Big Data Takes Center Stage

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Sampling requires anticipating how the data will be used so you can design the proper sample. Or, at least it’s good enough in the early stages of an empirical science, when we are looking for patterns that will help us predict future events and behaviors without necessarily having a good model or theory of why they happen.

Data 196

power, control, literacy

Harold Jarche

“… yes you can use large scale data analytics, AI and algorithms to discover new patterns in the sequences of presses and certainly this will help you against equally blind competitors. He has also found some empirical support for this by conducting experiments that ask participants to design initiations for hypothetical groups with different resources and status. Every fortnight I curate some of the observations and insights that were shared on social media.

Social Business in the Age of the Customer

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In other words, it is no longer enough for graduates to excel in functional, analytical and technical areas. As the line between products and services blurs into holistic customer experiences, companies are finding that their past focus on optimizing labor costs through automation and outsourcing finds them ill-equipped to design and build the required end-to-end customer experiences. .

A Useful Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Technology on Jobs

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Examples include sophisticated medical diagnosis, complex designs, and many R&D tasks, as well as managing large organizations, teaching, and writing books and papers. Environmental control holds great promise for the future, as we co-design our increasingly smart machines along with the environment in which they will operate. Last week I discussed a recent Pew Research report on the impact of AI, robotics and other advanced technologies on the future of jobs.

Educational Research in Learning Technology

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

I think the key point here is to note that not everything is designed to increase test scores. Also aka 'design research', where proving something works is all that it takes) - what's wanted? After a period of time, a tool (like a word processor or LMS) is no longer novel to the teacher or the school, and so they settle into a 'more normal' pattern of usage for that tool. There are specific facilities designed for learning into which learning technology is expected to fit.

Seminar on MOOCs, Lyon, France, Day 2

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

model - design run the MOOC, evaluate for knwoledge - eg. analytics - richness of social networks but: processing is more marketing than cognitive so far (A/B testing) - and the tension between the individual and the collective plus: the ideology of reducing everything to numbers - education as technology - does big data explain or does it merely predict? - articulation) 5 Design principles - collective design and distributed delivery (eg.,

Edge Perspectives with John Hagel: The Power of Power Laws

John Hagel

In many respects, the history of Western business in the twentieth century represents an effort to build scalable operations through standardization designed to serve “average consumers”. These managers inherit from the industrial economy a belief that, even where the world is not yet Gaussian, it can be made so through design. The problem is that most of our analytical tools are designed to understand Gaussian worlds. Here's to patterns that connect!

A Kind of Digital “Perfect Storm”

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

We seem to be heading toward a kind of digital perfect storm , where four major IT trends are each gathering speed while interacting with and amplifying each other: mobile devices, cloud computing, social networks and big data and analytics. Yet, their stories have certain patterns in common, not only with present companies but with others that are no longer with us.

Data 187

[liveblog] International Conf. of Univ. Libs: Morning talks

David Weinberger

Look at user needs to design services. We generate lots of data, which allows us to be strategic, looking for patterns of use. We can do predictive analytics. [ She goes through some analytics with charts that I cannot capture. ]. I’m at The 13th annual International Conference of University Libraries (Conferencia Internacional sobre Bibliotecas Universitarias) at the Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City. NOTE: Live-blogging. Getting things wrong.

The Science of Information-based Predictions

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Many pollsters seem to still be using methodologies that worked well a decade or two ago, but look woefully behind the times in the emerging world of big data and advanced analytics. But, good scientists and engineers are fatalistic by nature, always worrying about what can go wrong with their predictions and designs. Our instincts will often lead us to see patterns where there might be none.

The 2016 Look at the Future of Online Learning

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Seven Key Technology Patterns 1. Predictive analytics will grow in significance in terms of student retention and learner support. I did a double take when I read this, since I thought we were done with analytics, but the author assumed (I guess) that we need a whole second class of analytics, this time to predict what students will do. Five Key Features of Online Learning Which Technology Patterns Will Enable 1.

What I've Learned From Philosophy

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

There are many ways to define things: we can point to them, we can say what they contain, we can say what properties they have, we can talk about what they do, what they were designed to do, what they actually do, what they might do, we can say what they're for, we can talk about where they're from or who (or what) created them, and on and on. The collapse of the analytic-synthetic distinction means that no statement is wither purely syntactical or purely semantical.

[liveblog] Noam Chomsky and Bart Gellman at Engaging Data

David Weinberger

Used standard analytics techniques to find that white people are 4x more likely to get pardons, that campaign contributors are also more likely. The more we know, the more we can design policies to keep power in place. And now hardware in computers is being designed to detect your every keystroke, leading some Americans to be wary of Chinese-made computers, but the US manufacturers are probably doing it better.

Data 184

Presentation to UNCTAD's Advisory Group on "Developing skills, knowledge and capacities through innovation: E-Learning, M-Learning, cloud-Learning"

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Only after this, do we move into the idea, of learning design and pedagogy, which is drawn primarily from the field of distance learning, where courses are rounded up as packages, or what we might call program texts, designed to lead the student through a course of instruction. You begin to think in course packages complete with content, learning design, everything you need for an online course. It is, in many ways, an unbundling of this traditional course design.

Groups 158

Leadership and Rational Thinking

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Ferrucci compared the computational patterns in Watson with leadership in a complex, uncertain world. In this blog written for the THINK Forum, Ito observes that the explosion of ideas and low cost of collaboration all around us, is prompting a great deal of innovation, “but also a complexity, speed and capacity for amplification that makes the world a difficult and dangerous place for many organizations and human-made systems designed for a slower and simpler era.” “The

Beyond Institutions Personal Learning in a Networked World

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Thinking in Models: for Design, for Learning… A large part of this talk is about that change. We''re told there will be analytics and data-driven management. When you look at that, basically it''s like they have this model or design in their head of how we could rebuild the university system, wipe it all out, start over, and we''ll have a new model. Models of how to do learning, learning design patterns: Grainne Conole has done a lot on this.

Connective Knowledge and Open Resources

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

I was trying to get them to spot fallacies by recognizing them, by seeing signs that would remind them of common patterns of argument. The difference is that a cMOOC is designed as a network, as I described above, while an xMOOC is based on a central course site and content that will be followed by all students. In a MOOC, the network is created specifically for a given course, but gRSShopper is designed to support open content distribution and syndication generally.