Robocalypse Now? Technology, Productivity and Employment

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

His presentation was based on a paper co-written with Utrecht University economist Anna Salomons. “Is productivity growth inimical to employment?,” More importantly, technological progress also took the form of product innovation, and thus created entirely new sectors for the economy, a development that was essentially missed in the discussions of economists of this time.”. What’s the impact of productivity growth on employment at the industry level?

Misadventures in Content Production: Copying & Pasting is Not Reuse

Xyleme

The post Misadventures in Content Production: Copying & Pasting is Not Reuse appeared first on Xyleme. The term “reuse” gets thrown around a lot in regard to content management and maintenance, particularly when dealing with content at scale.

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Cloud, Services and the Transformation of Production

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Is it a return to centralized computing , driven by the rising complexities, management costs and energy inefficiencies of distributed systems? Cloud-based services require a much more standardized, mass customized , process oriented, industrialized approach to production , including the application of advanced technologies and rigorous science, engineering and management methodologies. . What do we mean by the production of services ?

Managing in Complexity

Harold Jarche

As our markets and technologies get more complex, we need new models to get work done. Simple systems are easily knowable, whereas complicated systems, while not simple, are still knowable through analysis. However, complex systems are not fully knowable, though they can be partially understood through interaction with them. If companies want to remain competitive in the global market, they need to focus on complex and creative work. complexity Wirearchy Work

Design thinking & complexity pt 1

Dave Snowden

I started talking about the differences that complexity theory makes to design thinking some time ago - In Malmo at the XP conference as I remember it - and have now introduced that material in modified form onto day four of our accreditation programme. The essence of the approach seemed to be: A claim to be a solution rather than a 'science' A focus on synthesis rather than analysis. It also seemed more suitable for product design that service creation.

Misadventures in Content Production: Why “Rapid” Tool Aren’t Really Rapid

Xyleme

In our latest article, Misadventures in Content Production: Separate Content from Presentation to Save the Day , we explore how locking content into restrictive formats with “rapid” tools makes content difficult to maintain, and all but impossible to reuse and personalize at scale. The post Misadventures in Content Production: Why “Rapid” Tool Aren’t Really Rapid appeared first on Xyleme.

Scale and Complex Systemic Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

They are highly motivated to bring to market new products which offer significantly improved designs and/or lower costs, and thus gain competitive advantage and market share from the established leaders in their segment of the market. By investing in new products or processes, the company can sell them to their already large customer base and reap greater rewards faster. But, it is not enough to be large for a company to succeed at complex systemic innovation.

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The Science of Complex Systems

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

When I look back over my long, relatively eclectic career, complex systems have been a common theme in all the activities I’ve been involved in. It started in the 1960s, when I was an undergraduate and graduate student at the University of Chicago majoring in physics, - the study of complex natural systems. The research for my thesis was focused on the highly complex world of atoms and molecules.

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Strategy and Execution in an Increasingly Complex World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Often, this is because they associate strategy with analysis and execution with getting things done, and they attribute more value to doing than to analyzing.” . Twenty-thirty years ago, the business world was arguably less complex, slower moving and more predictable. Strategic planning involved looking out several years into the future, - generally three to five years, longer for technologies and products requiring extensive R&D.

How Can We Ensure that Our Complex AI Systems Do What We Want Them to Do?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Software-intensive systems are generally quite flexible, - able to evolve and adapt to changing product and market requirements. Things are even tougher with people-centric sociotechnical systems, which not only have to deal with potential software problems, but with the even more complex issues involved in human behaviors and interactions. What is it that makes these systems so intrinsically complex? What purpose does this complexity serve?

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Social Learning, Complexity and the Enterprise

Harold Jarche

Our relationship with knowledge is changing as our work becomes more intangible and complex. PDL – Personal Directed Learning: from Clockwork & Predictable to Complexity & Surprising. Complexity, or maybe our appreciation of it, has rendered the world unpredictable, so the orientation of learning is shifting from past (efficiency, best practice) to future (creative response, innovation). In complex environments it no longer works to sit back and see what will happen.

Become a More Productive, Empathetic, Creative Person With the Help of AI-Based Tools

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Despite dramatic advances in technology, most of the world’s economies have been stuck in a long period of slow growth and slow productivity. In a recent article in the MIT Sloan Management Review , MIT Research Fellow Michael Schrage proposed a provocative and counterintuitive approach for enhancing innovation and productivity through man-machine collaborations. We’ve long been leveraging technology to help increase productivity.

Reflections on Innovation, Productivity and Job Creation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

This interest is a natural outgrowth of my work on highly complex systems , especially the kinds of people-oriented complex systems with which economists generally deal. Such a dramatic shift in jobs is largely due to the massive productivity improvements in the agriculture and industrial sectors as a result of the technological advances and innovations of the Industrial Revolution.

Increased complexity needs simplified design

Harold Jarche

Now that many of us live in messy democracies and work in loose networks, learning has become complex with more connections to influence us. According to the authors of Getting to Maybe , in complex environments : Rigid protocols are counter-productive. As Jay has said, informal learning is a better approach for more complex environments. Analysis for Informal Learning.

Complex Organizational Systems: Some Common Principles

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Following Vest’s keynote, I participated in a panel on Critical Issues and Grand Challenges , in which we discussed the kinds of complex and exciting societal challenges Chuck told us are needed to inject excitement into engineering. I was the last speaker in the panel, and talked about complex organizational systems. After listening intently to what they said, I came up with four key such common principles for complex systems. It is very complicated, but not quite complex.

Business or Pleasure? - why not both: The product-to-service.

Martijn Linssen

why not both Home About Contact Saturday, 21 August 2010 The product-to-service financial ratio Yesterday I saw a tweet by Frank Scavo : Chatting with a vendor about implementation cost to software license cost ratios. Back to the topic : there is a clear, direct and fairly linear relation between the initial cost of a product, and the additional cost(s) involved servicing it. In big IT companies, there isnt much enthusiasm to be found for selling Open Source products.

AI Technologies Are Fundamentally Changing How Work Gets Done

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

To the contrary, automating the more routine parts of a job will often increase the productivity and quality of workers by complementing their skills with technologies and tools, thus enabling them to focus on those aspect of the job that most need their attention.

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Productive Strategies for Using Information Streams in Development

Nancy White

Our work has become so complex, time-critical and crucial to saving lives that “collaboration&# with others has become a must. One of the key goals of DELIVER is the collection, analysis, storage and dispatch of time critical information, generated by systems, people or by public sources. So schemes to swim productively in the overwhelm in a strategic matter should be our focus.

The Collapse of Complex Business Models ? Clay Shirky

Clay Shirky

The Times’ Paywall and Newsletter Economics » The Collapse of Complex Business Models. In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness. Clay Shirky.

The Blockchain Value Framework

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The white paper is based on a global survey of 550 individuals across 13 industries, including automotive, banking, and retail; interviews with CEOs and public sector leaders; and a detailed analysis of 79 blockchain projects. Based on its analysis of almost 80 blockchain projects and its dozens of interviews with private and public sector leaders, the study developed the “blockchain value framework.” Improved productivity and quality. Reinventing products and processes.

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The Business Value of Augmented Reality

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

We generally think of products as physical entities built with a combination of mechanical and electrical components, - e.g., appliances, cars, agricultural machines, industrial equipment, - some quite simple and some highly complex. Smart connected products are radically reshaping companies and exposing them to new competitive opportunities and threats, while altering industry boundaries and creating entirely new industries.

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Blockchain - the Networked Ecosystem is the Business

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Based on the analysis of over 25 blockchain networks in various stages of production across multiple industries and geographies, the report recommends that a company’s blockchain journey should evolve along three distinct stages: in search of value, - establishing a minimum value ecosystem; getting to scale - creating value for an overall industry; and designing for new markets, - creating entirely new markets and business models.

Impact of an Aging Population on Economic Growth and Automation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Economic growth has two main components, productivity growth and the growth of the labor force. Older populations not only reduce labor force participation, but also lead to lower productivity, given that workers’ productivity and earnings have been shown to peak in their 40s. The model assumed that middle-aged workers have a comparative advantage in physically oriented production tasks while older workers specialize in non-production services. “In

Are Innovation and R&D Yielding Decreasing Returns?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Since the 1970s, US productivity and income growth have dipped sharply except for an Internet-driven productivity boost between1996 and 2004. Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find? , - a recent paper by economists Nicholas Bloom , Charles Jones and Michael Webb from Stanford and John Van Reenen from MIT, - shows that, across a wide range of industries, research efforts are rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply.

How to Support the Widespread Adoption of AI

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The advent of PCs in the 1980s then made it possible to apply IT to front-office processes and applications, such as word processing in office systems, spreadsheets in data analysis, and customer support. But during this period of rapid IT growth, US labor productivity grew at only 1.5% You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics,” said MIT Nobel Prize laureate economist Robert Solow in 1987, in what’s become known as the Solow productivity paradox.

The Economic Value of Digital Identity

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

McKinsey’s analysis was informed by nearly 100 concrete uses of digital IDs in seven countries: Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, the UK and the US. The largest sources of value for business and government institutions are time and cost savings, reduced fraud, increased sales of goods and services, improved labor productivity, and higher tax revenue. Identity plays a major role in our everyday life.

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The Economic Potential of The Internet of Things

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The report analyzes the long term economic potential of IoT, and uses this analysis to estimate the economic value of several IoT-based solutions by 2025. Given the breadth and complex nature of IoT-based solutions, quantifying their potential value is very difficult indeed, especially since such smart solutions , - e.g., smart cities , smart homes , smart healthcare , - are still in the very early stages of development.

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leadership through cooperation

Harold Jarche

The first agreement to formalize this arrangement has been signed between GSK and the University of Queensland, Australia, which entered a partnering agreement with CEPI in January 2019 to develop a “molecular clamp” vaccine platform, intended to enable targeted and rapid vaccine production against multiple viral pathogens. Encourage self-sufficiency especially around food, energy, and products. Machine learning is enabling the analysis of enormous data sets.

Blockchain and Business Process Transformation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

One can look at the transformational impact of IT on companies and industries through a variety of lenses, - e.g., products and services, revenue and profit, sales and support, market strategy. It started in the 1960s and 1970s with the automation of standardized, repetitive back-office processes in manufacturing, production and data processing operations like inventory management, financial transactions and airlines reservations. US labor productivity grew at only 1.5%

Intervention Design: Overcoming Stiff Resistance to a New, Disruptive Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

With four articles on the subject, HBR ’s overriding message is that design is no longer just for physical products, being increasingly applied to customer experiences, innovation, business strategy, and complex problem solving. . For a long time, we’ve associated design with hard, tangible products, - e.g., a smartphone, laptop, flat-panel TV, car; with physical objects like bridges and buildings; and with concrete spaces like stadiums and parks.

Artificial Intelligence is Ready for Business; Are Businesses Ready for AI?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

They invest in applications close to their core business, such as customer service, operations and product development. They see AI-driven innovation as driving increased revenues and higher productivity rather than just cutting costs. Demand forecasting, supply chain optimization, and improved product design and productivity. “ Organizations need to constantly anticipate the future to gain competitive advantage. AI is now seemingly everywhere.

Impact of AI on Government - Opportunities and Challenges

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

This first report is focused on the impact of AI on the federal workforce, based on an analysis of the jobs and tasks most susceptible to automation, as well as on roundtables and interviews with over 40 AI experts. Artificial Intelligence Complex Systems Data Science and Big Data Economic Issues Education and Talent Innovation Management and Leadership Political Issues Services Innovation Society and Culture Technology and Strategy

Despite Their Huge Upside Potential, Why Do Most Platforms Fail?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The book offer a simple definition. “Platforms, in general, connect individuals and organizations for a common purpose or to share a common resource.” A platform strategy differs from a product strategy in that it relies on an external ecosystem to generate complementary innovations and/or business transactions. The effect is much greater potential for innovation and growth than a single product-oriented firm can generate alone.

Skills and Jobs in the Digital Economy

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The digital revolution has yet to fulfil its promise of higher productivity and better jobs,” said The Economist in a special report on Technology and the World Economy in its October 4th issue. “The Routine, manual tasks can also be well described by a set of rules, including those involved in manufacturing and other forms of production. Equipment : Equipment Maintenance, Installation, Operation Monitoring, Repairing, Systems analysis, Troubleshooting, ….

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Can AI Help Translate Technological Advances into Strategic Advantage?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Go is a very complex game, for which there are more possible board positions than there are particles in the universe. The IT industry has long been associated from what’s been called the Solow productivity paradox , in reference to Robert Solow's 1987 quip: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics. We all thought that the Solow paradox was finally behind us when IT-driven productivity surged between 1996 and 2003.

The Evolution of Work in Urban Labor Markets

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

However, starting in the 1970s, blue-collar production jobs started to disappear in cities due to increased automation and international competition. Autor’s analysis showed that the well understood polarization of employment by education attainment has been accompanied by, and is likely the result of a less widely recognized polarization of jobs across geographic regions.

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As Big Data and AI Take Hold, What Will It Take to Be an Effective Executive?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Many of these jobs, - which include blue-collar production activities as well as information-based white-collar ones, - are based on well understood procedures that can be described by a set of rules that machines can then follow. . In principle, such jobs deal with non-routine, cognitive tasks requiring high human skills, including expert problem solving, complex decision-making and sophisticated communications for which there are no rule-based solutions. “As

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It's All About the Business Model, - Not the Technology

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But, it’s no longer enough for established companies to just roll out improved products and services based on their once-reliable business models. Surveys show that most executives agree, and in fact, many believe that business model innovation is even more important to their company’s success than product or service innovation. The power of this deceptively simple framework lies in the complex interdependencies of its parts.

Social Physics - Reinventing Analytics to Better Predict Human Behaviors

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

They’ve enabled the construction of AI algorithms that can be trained with lots and lots of sample inputs, which are subsequently applied to complex problems like language translation, natural language processing, and playing championship-level Go. Machine learning has been most successful when used for complex computational problems like image and voice recognition, where a huge body of data is available and the data is fairly static.

Technology and the Future of Media

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Production: the bundling of different content into a final market-ready product, - a newspaper, TV schedule, cable package or DJ’s playlist. Networks of individuals can now work together to generate content for one another, increasing the role of non-market and non-proprietary production.” . The application of ICT in such a broad variety of forms perhaps reflects the complexity of humanity and our increasing interdependence in a rapidly changing world.”.

Getting on the AI Learning Curve: A Pragmatic, Incremental Approach

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The paper is particularly focused on machine learning and related technologies, and is based on a detail analysis of more that 400 use cases across 19 industries and 9 business functions. Machine learning methods are particularly valuable in extracting patterns from complex, unstructured data, including audio, speech, images and video. It’s still quite difficult to explain in human terms the results from large, complex AI applications.

Data-Driven Decision Making: Promises and Limits

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In a recently published article, Data Science and its Relationship to Big Data and Data-Driven Decision Making , Foster Provost and Tom Fawcett succinctly define data-driven decision making as “the practice of basing decisions on the analysis of data rather than purely on intuition.” They tend to be complex, and unstructured because of the uncertainty and risks that generally accompany longer term decisions. A complex context is quite different.

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Automation and Employment in the 21st Century

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In January, the McKinsey Global Institute published A Future that Works: Automation, Employment and Productivity , the results of a two year study of automation technologies and their potential impact on jobs over the next several decades. McKinsey’s comprehensive report, - over 130 pages, - is the most detailed analysis I’ve seen on the subject. These include higher throughput and productivity as well as labor cost savings.