learning in complexity and chaos

Harold Jarche

But more of our challenges are complex and cannot be solved in a standard way — inequality, refugees, populism, racism. Whenever people are involved, within a global context of climate change, the situation is likely complex. We have to learn constantly in complexity.

Traditional Data Analysis and Data Science

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Domain expertise is also needed to be able to draw the proper conclusions from their analysis, and to communicate their findings to business leaders in their own terms. . As he wrote in Learning from Evidence in a Complex World : .

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complexity & chaos — the new normal

Harold Jarche

A major challenge I have had in my organizational change work is getting people to understand that complicated environments are different from complex ones, and the latter are almost always the situation when people are involved. This is my 200th post on the topic of complexity.

Cognitive Task Analysis

Clark Quinn

A technique for doing that is Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA). When I talk about the performance ecosystem , particularly for complex tasks, you want just this sort of support to determine what should be distributed across formal learning and performance support. If you’ve got performances that absolutely have to be right, you’ll want to do the analysis ala CTA, and use it to decide what really needs to be in training, checklists , etc.

Complexity and Public Administration

Dave Snowden

Some 10 years ago now when I first became interested in how complexity science might be used in public administration there was a body of thinking but relatively few practical examples of applications. So what is applying complexity thinking to public policy really all about?

Managing in Complexity

Harold Jarche

As our markets and technologies get more complex, we need new models to get work done. Simple systems are easily knowable, whereas complicated systems, while not simple, are still knowable through analysis. Complex problems cannot be solved alone. complexity Wirearchy Work

Design thinking & complexity pt 1

Dave Snowden

I started talking about the differences that complexity theory makes to design thinking some time ago - In Malmo at the XP conference as I remember it - and have now introduced that material in modified form onto day four of our accreditation programme.

The Complex Relationship Between Science and the Public

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Two years ago, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences launched The Public Face of Science , an initiative whose objective is to better understand the complex relationship between scientists and the public in America.

Big Data, Complex Systems and Quantum Mechanics

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

In thinking about this question over the last few years, I started to notice that a number of subtle, non-intuitive concepts that I learned many years ago as a physics student seem to apply to the world of big data and information-based predictions in highly complex systems. So is the world of highly complex systems , especially those systems whose components and interrelationships are themselves quite complex, as is the case with systems biology and evolution. .

Scale and Complex Systemic Innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

We generally think of large companies as being good at operations and incremental innovations, which require them to excel at management discipline, detailed information analysis and project management. It favors large companies because of their ability to address complex systemic problems, manage the large-scale ecosystems that solving such problems requires, and bring their solutions to market all round the world.

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How Can We Ensure that Our Complex AI Systems Do What We Want Them to Do?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Things are even tougher with people-centric sociotechnical systems, which not only have to deal with potential software problems, but with the even more complex issues involved in human behaviors and interactions. What is it that makes these systems so intrinsically complex?

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The Science of Complex Systems

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

When I look back over my long, relatively eclectic career, complex systems have been a common theme in all the activities I’ve been involved in. It started in the 1960s, when I was an undergraduate and graduate student at the University of Chicago majoring in physics, - the study of complex natural systems. The research for my thesis was focused on the highly complex world of atoms and molecules.

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7 principles of intervention in complex systems

Dave Snowden

Now one of the basic Cynefin mantras is that of safe-fail interventions, and lots of them, if the problem is complex. It is important to realise that a lot of conflict happens in the complex arena. I may buy this T-Shirt as its a great slogan.

Social Learning, Complexity and the Enterprise

Harold Jarche

Our relationship with knowledge is changing as our work becomes more intangible and complex. PDL – Personal Directed Learning: from Clockwork & Predictable to Complexity & Surprising. In complex environments it no longer works to sit back and see what will happen.

Embracing complexity at work

Harold Jarche

The Cynefin framework is a good way to explain different types of work and how training can only help in some cases: when work is simple (cause & effect are obvious) or complicated (cause & effect can be determined through analysis). Remember, almost all of this complexity is man-made.

Organizations and Complexity

Harold Jarche

Tweet I’ve discussed this table before, but I’d like to put it all the links together to highlight what we need to do with our organizations and structures to deal with complexity. Complexity. How we can support emergent practices in the increasingly complex enterprise: COMPLEXITY. Patti Anklam , in discussing value networks and complexity states: Understanding of complexity provides a practical guide to managing context.

Complexity and Design in Warfare

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The workshop explored how design-oriented approaches can help us better understand and deal with the very complex problems we are increasingly encountering in all aspects of business, economies, government, public policy, military operations and society in general. Over the past few meetings the Forum has focused on various topics related to complex systems, - how to best understand and manage them in the present, as well as predict and shape their future directions.

Strategy and Execution in an Increasingly Complex World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Often, this is because they associate strategy with analysis and execution with getting things done, and they attribute more value to doing than to analyzing.” . Twenty-thirty years ago, the business world was arguably less complex, slower moving and more predictable. These shifts are unyielding and contribute to the sense of a world growing more uncertain, volatile and complex.” .

The Complex Relationship Between Science and the Public

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Two years ago, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences launched The Public Face of Science , an initiative whose objective is to better understand the complex relationship between scientists and the public in America. Its analysis is based on survey data from multiple sources, including the Pew Research Center , the National Science Board Science and Engineering Indicators , the National Opinion Research Center , Research!America

Growing Up in a Complex World

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The primary challenge emerging out of the CEO conversations was complexity - the fact that CEOs now operate in a world that is substantially more volatile, uncertain and complex. Inheriting a Complex World: Future Leaders Envision Sharing the Planet invited graduate and undergraduate students to participate in a Web-based survey between October 2009 and January 2010. They grew up in a complex world. Several weeks ago IBM released its 2010 Global CEO Study.

Increased complexity needs simplified design

Harold Jarche

Now that many of us live in messy democracies and work in loose networks, learning has become complex with more connections to influence us. According to the authors of Getting to Maybe , in complex environments : Rigid protocols are counter-productive. Analysis for Informal Learning.

Harold Jarche » Workplace Performance Analysis Job Aid

Harold Jarche

Complex Organizational Systems: Some Common Principles

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Following Vest’s keynote, I participated in a panel on Critical Issues and Grand Challenges , in which we discussed the kinds of complex and exciting societal challenges Chuck told us are needed to inject excitement into engineering. I was the last speaker in the panel, and talked about complex organizational systems. After listening intently to what they said, I came up with four key such common principles for complex systems. It is very complicated, but not quite complex.

The Blockchain Value Framework

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The white paper is based on a global survey of 550 individuals across 13 industries, including automotive, banking, and retail; interviews with CEOs and public sector leaders; and a detailed analysis of 79 blockchain projects.

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The Collapse of Complex Business Models ? Clay Shirky

Clay Shirky

The Times’ Paywall and Newsletter Economics » The Collapse of Complex Business Models. In 1988, Joseph Tainter wrote a chilling book called The Collapse of Complex Societies. Every one of those groups had rich traditions, complex social structures, advanced technology, but despite their sophistication, they collapsed, impoverishing and scattering their citizens and leaving little but future archeological sites as evidence of previous greatness. Clay Shirky.

“the future of work will be based on hacking uncertainty”

Harold Jarche

The unit of analysis is now communication and emergence, not entities. Esko said that in order to develop the necessary emergent practices to deal with complexity you need to first cultivate diversity and by this I would say the autonomy of each learner. Communities Complexity Learnin

solving problems together

Harold Jarche

Exception handling is complex work, which requires sensemaking, curiosity, and initiative. Today’s complex work may become tomorrow’s merely complicated or even simple work. In addition, with complex work, failure has to be tolerated, as there are no best practices for exceptions.

Blockchain - the Networked Ecosystem is the Business

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Another major challenge is the sheer complexity of organizing major industry-wide initiatives. However, the report also warned that transforming the highly complex global financial ecosystem will take considerable investment and time.

The Simple Test and Complex Phenomena

Stephen Downes: Half an Hour

Either he thinks very poorly of certification programs, or he did not read Thalheimer's analysis. But if the test measures complex phenomena, then it is going to systematically misrepresent the student's understanding of the phenomena. Specifically, a very simple one-dimensional understanding will fare as well (and in this case, better) than a complex, nuanced understanding. Written after taking the test described by Will Thalheimer.

The Business Value of Augmented Reality

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

We generally think of products as physical entities built with a combination of mechanical and electrical components, - e.g., appliances, cars, agricultural machines, industrial equipment, - some quite simple and some highly complex.

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Impact of AI on Government - Opportunities and Challenges

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

This first report is focused on the impact of AI on the federal workforce, based on an analysis of the jobs and tasks most susceptible to automation, as well as on roundtables and interviews with over 40 AI experts.

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The Economic Value of Digital Identity

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

McKinsey’s analysis was informed by nearly 100 concrete uses of digital IDs in seven countries: Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, the UK and the US. Identity plays a major role in our everyday life.

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AI and the Evolution of History

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

AI, in contrast, is able to prescribe its own objectives. “AI systems, through their very operations, are in constant flux as they acquire and instantly analyze new data, then seek to improve themselves on the basis of that analysis.

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The Myth of the Washed-Up, Middle-Age Entrepreneur

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Their analysis yielded around 350,000 potential high-growth firms. Further analysis showed that the forward 5-year multiples of their stock price tended to rise as they got older, with the peak coming at 48 for Jobs, 39 for Gates, 45 for Bezos, and 36 for Brin and Page.

How to Support the Widespread Adoption of AI

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The advent of PCs in the 1980s then made it possible to apply IT to front-office processes and applications, such as word processing in office systems, spreadsheets in data analysis, and customer support.

Despite Their Huge Upside Potential, Why Do Most Platforms Fail?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Their analysis is based on the Forbes Global 2000 list of the world’s largest public companies. Complex Systems Economic Issues Innovation Management and Leadership Services Innovation Society and Culture Technology and Strategy

Are Innovation and R&D Yielding Decreasing Returns?

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The authors conducted a similar in-depth analysis in the agricultural and pharmaceutical industries. Analysis of a rich patent data set shows that the age of first patent has been increasing over time at a substantial rate.

Robocalypse Now? Technology, Productivity and Employment

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Details of their analysis can be found in the paper and presentation. Perhaps the most surprising - and yet simultaneously, pedestrian - takeaway from our analysis is that productivity growth is not the primary driver of rising or falling employment. Is the Robocalypse upon us?,

Blockchain Beyond the Hype

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

But there are significant drawbacks, including performance and complexity. McKinsey’s analysis of over 90 discrete use cases across 14 major industries revealed three core insights about the strategic value of blockchain. .

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Blockchain Can Reshape Financial Services… But it Will Take Significant Time and Investment

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Not surprisingly given their complexity, change comes much slower to global financial infrastructures. The majority of the 130-page report consists of a deep-dive analysis of how DLT might apply to several different use cases.

Social Physics - Reinventing Analytics to Better Predict Human Behaviors

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

They’ve enabled the construction of AI algorithms that can be trained with lots and lots of sample inputs, which are subsequently applied to complex problems like language translation, natural language processing, and playing championship-level Go.

Harnessing the Collective Intelligence of Humans and Machines

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

These included tasks requiring logical analysis such as solving visual puzzles; tasks emphasizing collective brainstorming and moral judgements; and tasks based on coordination and planning such as negotiating over limited resources.

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Impact of an Aging Population on Economic Growth and Automation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger

An analysis of data from various sources verifies these predictions. In all cases, the analysis showed statistically significant correlations. Beyond robots, the analysis found a strong effect of aging on countries with the highest shares of exports of industrial automation technologies. Artificial Intelligence Complex Systems Data Science and Big Data Economic Issues Education and Talent Future of Work Political Issues Society and Culture Technology and Strategy